2016 OPTIMISM OR UNCERTAINTY

Forecasts to 2016: optimism to uncertainty

Until the late evening of December 20, the economic prospects were promising for Spain and, consequently, to the Spanish real estate market. It predicted growth sustained above 2.5% for the next few years, based on the interest of international investors. However, the distribution of powers emerged from the general election of the 20 d has put recovery on 'stand-by' in anticipation a few months of political turbulence.

Among the markets that must calibrate the impact of the power vacuum is real estate, in the process of normalization after more than seven years of continuous falls, both in prices and transactions. In fact, operations of purchase and sale of homes increased 2.7% year on year in October, 35.088 transactions, according to the General Council of notaries, while prices were adjusted downward by 0.3% over the same month of 2014, to stay at 1,226 per m2

For BBVA, the key is in the residential demand. However, these forecasts may suffer a sudden worsening if political instability cut improvement of the labor market, higher disposable income of households, the maximum that is registering the trust of the consumer or demand from foreign buyers.

Bankinter is also optimistic about the housing market and predicts a gradual rise over the next two years. However, points to a possible hindrance to the good performance of the sector: the fall of the population in the coming years. In addition, the entity also warns that an improvement of GDP and employment are basic to confirm the positive evolution in the sector.

This same idea is handled by the Association of real estate of the Valencian Community, which considers that the surplus of unsold in the Valencian Community new homes will be reduced by a quarter over the next year. However, not all market will evolve in the same way: just as in the Valencia Park homes available will be very limited, thanks to foreign buyers who placed his second home on the East Coast, less attractive elsewhere the stock of housing will continue to be a problem during the next 12 months.